Thinking in Bets — Review & Summary (Annie Duke)
Overview
- Author: Annie Duke
- Published: 2018
- Genre: Decision Making, Psychology
- Length: ~288 pages
- Language: English
Short Summary
Former poker pro Annie Duke teaches how to separate decision quality from outcomes. Thinking in probabilities reduces bias, improves learning, and leads to better long-term results.
Key Takeaways
- Resulting: good outcomes don’t always mean good decisions.
- Assign probabilities, not certainties, to beliefs.
- Use “pre-mortems” and diverse feedback pods.
- Record decisions to learn from luck vs. skill.
Notable Quotes
“We are betting on our beliefs with every decision we make.”
“Experience is the best teacher only if you can learn from it.”
Who Should Read This Book?
Leaders, investors, creators—anyone making repeated decisions under uncertainty.
Pros and Cons
Pros:
- Actionable mental models.
- Great stories from poker & business.
- Practical group decision tactics.
Cons:
- Less depth on statistics.
- Some repetition of core ideas.
Final Verdict
Clear, useful handbook for probabilistic thinking and better choices.
Buy on Amazon
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